Deeptech Startups and their Challenges in France (continued)

As indicated in my previous article, I preferred to cut out my summary of the workshop on the subject “Deeptech: are we ready to scale?” organized by Inria during the Vivatech trade fair

If the first round table spoke about bipeds, the second was about ecosystems, about “rain forests” more than “French gardens”!

Antonin Bergeaud, I listened to you when you received the award for the best young economist in France, particularly about technological innovation, on France Inter and France Culture and you said at one point that you were drawing a parallel between your childhood dream of being an astronomer and your situation as an economist by saying that you wanted to understand the complexity of the world but that in the economy, there is the human factor which there is not with the stars. Is that our challenge or are there other elements that interest you so that we have European Gafam tomorrow?

“We have the impression that the level of complexity is really in hard sciences but in the human sciences there are a lot of interactions that make things very complicated and in particular because we have little regularity so we have to deal with the fact that there are biases. Like what was mentioned that in Europe we are less enthusiastic than the Americans, but we don’t know how to measure this very well. There are a lot of features that we have to take into account and since the challenge is to try to inform and shed light on why we have such difficulties, for example having a Tech sector that is of the same magnitude as the one we have in the United States or why companies have difficulty obtaining financing in Europe, we are obliged to take into account all these dimensions and it is true that it is quite complicated, so that is a bit where the parallel ends, it is that it is complicated. I think that now there is a kind of consensus beginning on the structural difficulties that we have in France and in Europe, which does not mean that we are going to correct them but at least we are beginning to understand a little better what is happening.” […]
– we don’t have enough entrepreneurs and we don’t have enough engineers trained in France and Europe […] there’s a real training issue that needs to be addressed, largely because you have a lot of losses, a lot of entrepreneurs and engineers leaving for the other side of the Atlantic.
– the second difficulty in Europe, because all the French problems are quite real everywhere in Europe, is getting universities to connect with businesses. For example, all patents filed by all companies in the world must provide the academic references they use in the patent description, and what we see is that for certain technologies, where Europe is practically non-existent in terms of technology production and marketing, we are actually relatively dominant or at the same level as the United States in the production of ideas, except that these ideas are not cited by French or European patents; they are cited by Chinese or American patents. So, basically, we have scientists and researchers who produce very relevant ideas, including on very, very recent technologies, and ideas are supposed to circulate freely. They circulate freely, but they circulate a lot from Europe to other countries, and a little less in the other direction.
– the third problem is indeed financing, which was discussed a lot earlier. I think that in Europe we have a relationship with risk that is really specific to our continent. Perhaps it is not necessarily negative, and I don’t think we should necessarily give it up, but we must be aware that it poses a certain number of difficulties in growing companies quickly, particularly in disruptive technologies, because we tend to move more towards bank financing, because we have less venture capital funding, because we have a market that is very fragmented, particularly in terms of financing innovation, and because we have institutions and regulations that are much more restrictive, at least from a growth point of view, than what is done in the United States.

Paul Midy, I could call you Mr. Start-Up at the National Assembly. What would you like to add?

“I would put the issue of financing number 1 by far. Fundraising in Europe seems to be three times lower than fundraising in the United States, even though we are generally roughly the same size, we generate roughly the same GDP. When you put your money into a company like Mistral, a deeptech company, you don’t get it back the following year, it’s at least 20 years later that you get it back; it’s long-term capital. And this long-term capital exists mainly in retirement capital, and so I would say that the number 1 factor is the fact that we have a pension system in France, and many in Europe too, which is a pay-as-you-go system that is not a capitalization system. We don’t have pension funds or we have very few. We have to realize the enormous gaps that this generates in France. Long-term savings and what can look a bit like capitalization are 200-300 billion euros; if I take the whole European Union, it’s 6,000 billion and essentially it’s the democracies of northern Europe at 70%; if I take the United States it’s 42,000 billion. You can supply a New York Stock Exchange with 25,000 billion and supply a Nasdaq with 25,000 billion and on the other side in France you have Paris the Paris Stock Exchange 3,000 billion Frankfurt 3,000 billion London 3,000 billion so we have a stock of capital which is much less important and so for fundraising the result of all this is that our start-ups last year raised 50 billion in the United States it’s 150 billion. […] I call for us to make a CIP, a common innovation policy at least as ambitious as the CAP, the common agricultural policy. A third of the budget of the European budget is the CAP. Another third is the social cohesion funds. Very important. Innovation is less than 10% of Europe’s budget. It must at least be three times more immediately. […] I am a politician, so we are trying to change the system. Either we say to ourselves, it’s a culture, that’s how Europeans are, and they like risk less, they are a little more grumpy and everything, and so there is nothing to be done. I can’t accept that, so I’m trying to understand why the Americans are in a different situation; it’s not genetic. I think we need to set ourselves the goal of making Europe the richest, most prosperous continent in the world, therefore the most innovative, capable of defending itself, and then everything will flow from that.

Alexis Robert, you work for Kima Ventures, which is Xavier Niel’s fund, whose recent book “Une sacrée envie de foutre le bordel” (A Real Desire to Cause Trouble) I read, and which sometimes puts himself at odds with the system. Do you also, by working for the Kima Ventures fund, have a slightly more atypical view of these things, or how do you want to build on what we just shared?

“In fact, what happens when you are early stage, while what you mentioned is true in late-stage for Series B financing and above, but in fact today what we see is that in the seed rounds, preseed/seed there is in fact a little too much capital, and in fact today the VCs, the problem that there is and why we have difficulty finding GAFAMs is if we actually go back to the history of French venture capital, in fact they are spin-offs of banks and then over time they actually recruited the sons of their LPs [Limited Partners] or people who were in their network or people who thought like them who actually have a finance mindset. There are very few engineers, very few scientists who are actually in these VCs. […] To create GAFAMs, to create for example openAI, Sam Altman comes from the world of Computer Scientists, look at Elon Musk, he is a Computer Scientist, you look at Mark Zuckerberg, he is a Computer Scientist, and in fact to create the GAFAMs of tomorrow it will actually come from people who have a strong scientific culture or who have cultures that are different it can be people who perhaps did not graduate from engineering schools, people who are very different but the VCs are stuck in a mindset and the people in the ecosystem in general too. […] For example Mistral at the time when Arthur Mensch, Guillaume Guillaume Lample and Timothée Lacroix did their first fundraising, uniformly all the VCs all said ah yes what they do is great “yeah but hey they are researchers anyway”, they do not know how to break out of the mold of CEO who went to HEC.”

Mehdi, we supported you at the start-up studio, but before talking about business, we’ll come back to that later. I remember maybe you don’t want to talk about it too much, but you wrote a wonderful essay on what a functioning ecosystem is for entrepreneurship. I reread it two days ago, it was in 2017 I think. Do you have the same vision of the ecosystem’s weaknesses and what a country must do to promote people like you 8 years later?

“So yes, and even more unfortunately, even more so, and I’ll explain why. Yes, money is an issue, but even Sam Altman today, who is at the head of OpenAI, who has just made, who has just said that he has an annual turnover of 10 billion, has financing problems. But for me, the problem, the big problem in the ecosystem, is ambition, it’s the ambition of European entrepreneurs. In California, he would tell you, “I’m going to change the world,” they have an ambition that has no limits, and be careful, it’s not genetic, they are trained for that, they have accelerators like Ycombinator, they have advisors, they are often coached by other entrepreneurs who have had exits or who have made very large companies, and they are fueled by ambition, which I think we lack here. [What’s also missing] is investors who also work on feeling, who work on entrepreneurial ambition, who will go and fight for a billion or a hundred billion dollar case. Money is not the main problem for me because there is money, especially in seed funding in France with the BPI. After that, it is the ambition that must match, and the execution of course, the execution is not simple, but Arthur Mensch raised 100 million on slides in 3 months because he had an ambition at that time. “Unfortunately in Europe we are still in an ecosystem where we make technology with money where others make money with technology.” […] Sam Altman coached close to 1000 startups when he was at the head of Ycombinator, he saw an ecosystem, he saw innovators, he trained himself, that’s why today he says we will make a generative AI, an AI that will be a company that makes 1 billion, a person will be able to make a billion in value thanks to an AI and a only employee but because they are trained. Now look these are what Alain Damasio calls hyperstitions [https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/hyperstition] we are beyond superstition sometimes, we fall into lies, we fall into ideology so we in Europe we are a little more careful. [In the USA we say] “go for it, go for it, we support you, we will go with you” but today I do not know anyone in Europe who would act like that because they are trained in the USA. It is really an INSEP of entrepreneurs that we need.” […] Entrepreneurship is like playing poker you have cards in hand and then there are cards that arrive and as you go you have to adapt. We need people who will free us up, not just as entrepreneurs!, but who will free up the bandwidth to be able to understand what is happening. For me, these are advisors who have made the Champions League.”

Alexis Robert: “I am very aligned with Mehdi […] there are [so many people who] reject you because in fact you do not speak in the languages ​​of the mold. In fact that is the problem today, is that in fact the entrepreneur feels alone and certain types of entrepreneurs who have a scientific and technical background do not know where to turn and today what is happening in San Francisco, what makes San Francisco great, is because in fact you get off the plane directly you have the feeling of being accepted as a geek, you have the feeling of being at the right place, you have “role models” who are there for you, who pull you up, you have the feeling that you too can be able to do this and in addition there is a sense of community which is extraordinary; you arrive, you are in the street, you speak with a VC, well, he listens to you or not, you have Sam Altman who passes in the street and you can say hello, you sit in a cafe and you talk, you have entrepreneurs to talk to, speaking is easy, introductions are easy and fluid, you can surround yourself with people who allow you to learn and improve because, as was said in the first panel, if you have understood general relativity, succeeding in pitching is not very complicated, you will succeed in doing it and in fact that’s what I wanted to say.”

I stop here and the people said much more. This is unfair not to share everything… But I think it gives you a feeling of what are challenges and opportunities are !


The Tour Triangle designed by Herzog and de Meuron, at the exit of Salon Vivatech, see also Instagram

Deeptech Startups and their Challenges in France

During the Vivatech trade show, Inria organized a workshop on the topic “Deeptech: Are we ready to scale?”

The discussions were rich, in-depth, and fascinating. I’m obviously biased since I was a co-organizer, but I’ve rarely had such a pleasure discussing the topic. So, I’ll provide a subjective summary, adding my own comments on various topics that are dear to my heart. [They will be in brackets and italics.]

What is Deeptech?

This was the starting point for Théau Peronnin, founder and CEO of Alice & Bob. “Above all, it’s a technology that has two fundamental attributes: the first is it has very deep roots in science. If you can understand this technology straight out of business school, it’s perhaps because it’s not quite deeptech yet. […] Its second attribute is the ability to create companies, players, or products that will have a strategic impact on the economy.”

[During another roundtable, I heard that the term appeared when the internet, B2B/B2C, and SaaS had diluted the technology into the excesses of “pet.com”, but that fundamentally, the high-tech of the 1980s and the deeptech of the 2010s are two sides of the same coin. I would add that if something is patentable, it’s undoubtedly deeptech.]

Théau Peronnin then gave his perspective on the challenges facing the French ecosystem. “I can tell you very simply: in France, we are extremely strong on the initial opportunity, we have incredible talent. We are still tied for first place in the number of Fields medals with the Americans, even though we are five times fewer in number.” […] “And then we have an early-stage venture capital ecosystem that has managed to establish itself in recent years, perhaps even a little too much; we could finally say that it is slightly saturated.” […] “The weaknesses are really in the later stages of a deeptech’s life. We have a subject that is perfectly known but which is far from being cracked, which is that of financing the so-called growth stages, this moment when companies like Alice and Bob will seek to raise capital of several tens of millions of euros, several hundreds of millions of euros to continue this R&D race at the international level.” [This is a subject that will be addressed later and I am not sure that it is the main subject, but the debate undoubtedly exists. See below!] “There are no suitable European players, which creates an anticipation effect across the entire value chain and there is a certain reluctance among funds to really deploy this capital with intensity and audacity in deeptech.” […] “Silicon Valley takes its name from the deeptech of the 70s, 80s, 90s in silicon, which created generations of fortunes of individuals with a very strong appetite for this deeptech and who therefore subsequently directed their capital towards these investment funds which continue to invest in this field. In Europe, there are no such fortunes, they were made elsewhere, they are in other fields and therefore we do not yet have these good products, hence the important role of the State in priming the pump.”

“One last point to introduce the round table on the human factor, which is the relationship to risk-taking. France has a school in any case, a view of studies and the academic world very focused on excellence which is perhaps the downside, or rather the cliché, of saying that we have a certain fear of failure and this is seen in my opinion in certain systems which deserve to be rethought, notably that of the Pacte law for the part-time activity of researchers and there it is a very personal opinion that I wish to share with you which is that of saying that there is no entrepreneurship without risk-taking. You have to get your hands dirty, you have to put your career on the line somewhere, you have to have “skin in the game” as the Anglo-Saxons say and perhaps in this system there is therefore in this part-time activity, a comfort in knowing that you are still well protected within your research organization while trying to enjoy the pleasure of entrepreneurship. In my opinion, we have to go all out and that means being able to come back to the academic world after a startup failure and so perhaps the lever to allow more audacity is to make the academic world more attractive for profiles with hybrid careers that have gone through the world of entrepreneurship. That’s to launch this round table on the theme of the human factor, these men and women who are making the entrepreneurs of tomorrow.”

Deeptech is, above all, about bipeds!

Théau Peronnin returned to the subject of humans through a real problem: “A very difficult issue we have is that of parity, gender diversity, which is horribly difficult to crack because we arrive at the very end of the food chain for training these profiles. Above all, technical profiles, a lot of self-centeredness regarding the fact of going through the Grandes Ecoles with all the sociocultural bias there is in these Grandes Ecoles, and even with international diversity, we must have between 20 and 30 nationalities, 30% of non-French speakers in the team, so this gives you a little demography.”

Xavier Duportet amplifies this human aspect: “We have people who are a little crazy because to get started in deeptech [where] less than 2% of projects reach a mature product on the market […] to get started you have to be a little crazy, you have to be naive too, I think, and you have to think that what is impossible can become possible. There are lots of things we don’t know and so the unknown is part of our daily work.” […] “The most important thing for us is not necessarily experience, it’s above all curiosity and that people are enterprising because in deeptech you can’t just apply the principles, apply the things you’ve already learned, you always have to be ready to face failure almost every day and so you need people who are willing to question themselves and who deep down are truly enterprising people.”

Jean-Michel Dalle: “There are motivated bipeds who come to talk to us about the microbiome, or motivated bipeds who come to talk to us about quantum computers. Anyone who doesn’t see things from that perspective, that is, from the bipeds’ perspective, is missing something. Of course, we’re going to check that the quantum computer project isn’t just anything, that they didn’t invent it on a Sunday morning after the market. But if we don’t look at it through the eyes of the founders, in my opinion, we need to change careers.”

Théau Peronnin: “The real issue is that the researcher’s passion is to understand, but the problem with that is that we reap the rewards of the pleasure of our work very early in the product’s life. I understood what I had to break to bring this machine to market, but unfortunately, we only did 5 or 10% of the work to truly deliver the system.” Behind this, we need to strengthen, produce, distribute, reposition. There is a whole issue: how do we learn to take pleasure not in having understood but in making the other person understand, but even more than that, in making the other person adopt what we have cracked, and that is a muscle to develop which is quite different.

Xavier Duportet: “It’s not a technology, it’s not a science that’s going to change the world or save the world, but a product, and that’s often where it falls short. We still see a lot of researchers who only think about science, only technology, and who can’t make the switch in their minds, saying, ‘How come I’m not selling my science, but I’m making people dream, I’m making these serious people [investors] dream, that I’m going to be able to be that person who will transform science into a product that will generate added value for society, but above all, for investors.'”

Marie Paindavoine: “I was lucky at the beginning to be supported in entrepreneurship by structures from the academic world, first by INRIA and then by the University of Berkeley in the United States, which has an acceleration program, and it’s true that thanks to them, it allowed me to learn how to transform this scientific discourse into an entrepreneurial discourse; and moreover, at the acceleration program at the University of Berkeley, for six months, we just repeat the company pitch and learn how to convince, in fact, because ultimately, and they tell us, ultimately, you’ve done the hardest part, you have great technology, you’ve managed to write a thesis in cryptography, well, you’ve done the hardest part, Marie, now learning marketing will take you two months, but you have to get down to it for two months, and that’s where we need to surround ourselves, to have this ecosystem that allows people to train because, after all, if we’ve managed to do a doctorate, we’re able to continue to train in the profession of entrepreneurship, but we need to find those people who can see not the value of scientific technology as it can be presented today, but a sort of projected value of this technology.”

Xavier Duportet: “On people and the network and the ecosystem, I also had the chance to do a thesis between INRIA and MIT. At first I wanted to be a researcher and when I arrived at MIT, I saw all these people who were starting up, these professors who were becoming entrepreneurs, that’s when I understood I was inspired by this generation of entrepreneurial researchers saying to myself but in fact if we really want to change the world it’s not research it’s entrepreneurship and today in the US, there is Silicon Valley, it was created 20 years ago, 30 years ago as Théau said there is this whole generation now, not grandpas but slightly older people who have succeeded and so in fact there is a “network effect” in the US which is super important, it’s the generation of entrepreneurs who have already succeeded who are there to help and pass on they did it they made mistakes and they really serve as mentors and that’s where we have a pretty interesting opportunity, and in France we can’t want to put the cart before the horse, we have what the BPI has done, all the research institutes, the change that has been underway for 10 years, we are starting to have these companies which are becoming leaders on the international level.”

Matthias Schmitz: “What we have started to do recently is to invest in an entrepreneurial mindset much earlier in the education of our students so we are trying to roll out programs where we bring entrepreneurship into all the faculties. For example, the university of Saarland is investing €1.5M every year with the goal that every single student that we have, whether it is a business student, whether it is a Romanistic student or an engineering student has at least one time during his studies thought whether entrepreneurship can be a career option for himself and by doing that I think we try to solve the problem a little bit earlier, bring the mindset in the heads of the people and not having to have people jump into the too cold water at the moment where they are already at the PhD level.”

Marie Paindavoine on being a female entrepreneur: “do you want the version we hear in France or the United States? both! So we don’t hear the same thing in France and in the United States. In France, I was immediately asked if I intended to partner with “un” CEO, emphasizing the “un”. I was already asked after my presentation, well, anyway, I’m not going to do them all actually because it’s of no interest, but there is indeed a halo of suspicion, let’s put it like that. In the United States, then I’m not saying that they are better than in France because I arrived at the University of Berkeley, at the University of Berkeley accelerator, 2,000 applications, 30 start-ups selected, 2 women CEOs, so they are not much better. On the other hand, once we reach this level of selection, when I say I’m starting a business with children, people tend to congratulate me on the level of energy it requires instead of asking me how I’m going to arrange childcare and if my husband agrees with me starting a business with my children, something I’ve already been asked in France.

I’ll stop here and do a new post about the second roundtable!

Figma again, now an IPO

I published a post about Figma in October 2022 when it was announced it would be acquired by Adobe for $20B. Here is the article. At the time I could not find official data about the startup and I built a cap. table based on public data available online (see at the bottow).

This morning I found a SEC filing document published in Nov. 2022 that I had not seen before, which says much more. So I built a revised cap. table and you can compare it also below close to the older one. They are not that different though. My motivation for looking for such a document is that Figma has confidentially filed for an IPO. So if it happens, updated numbers will emerge like fundrasising between 2022 and 2025, real revenues, profit (or loss) and employee count. Still I had to publish this revised version.


Figma cap. table as revised in June 2025


Figma cap. table estimated in October 2022

Google vs. Y Combinator

“Don’t be evil” Google (former) motto

“Make something people want” Y Combinator (current) motto

What a shock to discover the briefing of Y Combinator “against” Google in the U.S.’s monopoly case against the search giant. The link is here and the pdf there:

govuscourtsdcd22320513001

I have been a fan of both entities for 20 years. But time flies and the world apparently changes. At the end of this post I will come back to the reasons why I have been impressed by Y Combinator over time and in particular the duo Jessica Livingston / Paul Graham.

In fact this article is more about Y Combinator. It could be that what I liked about Google is dead as it was hinted in Goomics. So no real need to talk about Google. I have done it so often with the tag #google. But I first need to describe shortly the accelerator’s arguments against Google.

BRIEF OF Y COMBINATOR, LLC AS AMICUS CURIAE IN SUPPORT OF PLAINTIFFS

The remedies stage of this case has important implications for technology startup founding and funding. We respectfully submit this brief to share our view, based on two decades of frontline experience, that robust antitrust enforcement here can help to foster a healthier, more resilient, and more vibrant U.S. innovation ecosystem. The startups we work with every day should be able to exercise their “vigor, imagination, devotion, and ingenuity,” United States v. Topco Assocs., Inc., 405 U.S. 596, 610 (1972), in markets that are free from restrictive conduct and illegally maintained monopoly power. YC supports Plaintiffs’ proposed remedy package as a whole. To aid the Court’s analysis, we also highlight below particular components of the proposed remedy as to which we believe our first-hand experience has given us unique insight and perspective.

Anticompetitive measure have been constant in the history of the USA and the brief reminds it :

Experience has taught us that technological inflection points are critical moments for competition and innovation. The rise of novel, transformative technology can create an opening for nimble startups to disrupt established incumbents. […] Dominant incumbents often respond by using exclusionary conduct to try to slow down or coopt the future. […] For example, during the mid-1990s, Microsoft recognized the disruptive potential of web-based software applications and reacted by anticompetitively blocking rival internet browsers from reaching users. United States v. Microsoft Corp., 253 F.3d 34, 60 (D.C. Cir. 2001). More recently, Facebook recognized the explosion in usage of mobile applications and reacted by acquiring mobile-native startups that it viewed as competitive threats. See FTC v. Meta Platforms, Inc., No. CV 20-3590 (JEB), 2024 WL 4772423, at *29–30 (D.D.C. Nov. 13, 2024) (“[T]he case for buying Instagram focused heavily on neutralizing a competitive threat.”).

Antitrust remedies have a long track record of unlocking American dynamism and ingenuity. An antitrust consent decree in 1956, for example, required AT&T to provide open access to its patents and technical manufacturing information. That remedy order helped usher in the modern digital age, in large part because it enabled “young and small” firms—what we think of today as “little tech” companies—to compete. See Martin Watzinger et al., How Antitrust Enforcement Can Spur Innovation: Bell Labs and the 1956 Consent Decree, 12 AM. ECON. J. ECON. POL’Y 328, 330 (2020). A new generation was able to enter and expand in a multitude of markets, helping to vault the United States into position as the world’s leader in technological innovation. Id. Economists have called the 1956 antitrust decree “one of the most unheralded contributions to economic development” in history, and the co-founder of Intel called it “one of the most important developments for the commercial semiconductor industry.” This tradition has continued in the modern era. In 2022, for example, the U.S. Federal Trade Commission blocked Nvidia Corp.’s proposed acquisition of Arm Ltd., a semiconductor technology firm. Arm’s CEO later explained that the structural separation “helped us” focus on delivering better products at a time when “more applications [were] moving towards the cloud” and “AI [was] starting to raise its head.” An Interview with Arm CEO Rene Haas. Arm has since gone public on the Nasdaq stock exchange, delivered record revenues, and is now worth more than $100 billion. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s earnings have nearly quintupled as its chips helped to fuel the rise of generative AI technology.

But by foreclosing competition, Google has chilled independent firms like YC from funding and accelerating innovative startups that could otherwise have challenged Google’s dominance. The result is a landscape that has been artificially stunted and stagnant. In our view, Plaintiffs’ proposed remedy package would help to unlock a more dynamic, globally competitive U.S. technology startup ecosystem.

Y combinator proposes the following remedies:
A. The Remedy Should Open Access to Google’s Datasets and Search Index.
B. The Remedy Should Prevent Google from Extending Its Monopolies into Query-Based AI Tools.
C. The Remedy Should Prevent Google From Entering Pay-to-Play Arrangements with Distributors.
D. The Remedy Order Should Deter Circumvention and Retaliation.

I’m not sure I understand all of this, but the implications would certainly be major. I will not go into more details, but for sure this is deep and quite fascinating.

ABOUT Y COMBINATOR

The brief mentions an article about Y Combinator, subtitled The Inside Story of Tech’s Most Influential Startup Accelerator. It is a great reading. I loved it and illustrates with a few comments.

First their philosophy is what mainly attracts me. And once again, this is linked to the people who founded it, in particular Paul Graham and Jessica Livingston. I will not count how many times Graham is quoted here, his essays are famous (I just counted 228 different articles since 2005) and in a way they are close to Montaigne’s. Just check one for example, The Two Kinds of Moderate.

As the article says, Jessica Livingston has an underrated role, “If Paul Graham was Y Combinator’s philosophical architect, Jessica Livingston was its social architect—quietly and effectively shaping YC’s culture and community from the earliest days.” If you have never heard of her, it is never to late to read Founders at Work. And indded Paul Graham felt the need to right an essay entitled Jessica Livingston 🙁

Their philosophy is simple and complex at the same time. Again read the article mentioned above and here are their “mantras, distilled from hard-earned experiences, are now part of global startup culture:

THE PERFORMANCE OF Y COMBINATOR

Don’t get me wrong. All this does not mean Y Combinator has found the recipe for success. Let met add just figures from the article:

You can have you own thoughts about these numbers. What I read is :
– out of 5000 startups, 17 went public (less than 1%) and about 500 were acquired (about 10%) and remember an acquisition can be at a very low value.
– not that many fail, particularly in the first years , so the “fail fast” mantra is not that obvious.
Is Y Combinator more sucessful than others. I do not know but I loved their approach to entrepreneurship.

ABOUT THE EVOLUTION AND DEATH OF INNOVATIVE ENTITIES

I just said “loved” and not “love”. I begin to feel that old structures lose their agility and creativity. It is what Y Combinator thinks of Google. I discovered that Graham and Livingston have retired from YC. I also believe that a culture is difficult to maintain when the founders leave. And I had a similar feeling with YC when Sam Altman & others began to lead it. There is somethind depressing about the comment but maybe not.

My first article on this blog was about the speech of Steve Jobs at Stanford. Read it again and again :

Death is very likely the single best invention of Life. It is Life’s change agent. It clears out the old to make way for the new. Right now the new is you, but someday not too long from now, you will gradually become the old and be cleared away. Sorry to be so dramatic, but it is quite true.

Your time is limited, so don’t waste it living someone else’s life. Don’t be trapped by dogma – which is living with the results of other people’s thinking. Don’t let the noise of others’ opinions drown out your own inner voice. And most important, have the courage to follow your heart and intuition. They somehow already know what you truly want to become. Everything else is secondary.

Silicon Valley : The Collapse?

Excellent issue of FUTU&R, the magazine by Usbek & Rica, which main feature is entitled Silicon Valley, Chronicle of a Collapse. It’s not a good time to be a fan of the region these days. If you follow my blog, you’ve seen my struggles to understand what’s going on there. This issue contributes to this, and you’ll discover dubious characters like Curtis Yarvin, Balaji Srinivasan, Palmer Lucky, in addition to the famous Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, David Sacks, and even Larry Ellison. The issue is a bit biased, but that’s the name of the game, since the magazine “imagines how the Tech Eldorado could collapse.”

The magazine had the good idea to add the informed opinion of Olivier Alexandre, often mentioned on this blog, notably as the author of La Tech. I scanned the contributions in low resolution and I hope the magazine will forgive me for this breach of copyright. I obviously encourage you to buy a copy!

I will just comment on what Olivier Alexandre says and I will end this post by discussing a related subject through a fairly recent scientific article, The Role of Universities in Shaping the Evolution of Silicon Valley’s Ecosystem of Innovation (pdf)

“Are we witnessing the collapse of Silicon Valley? What is certain is that it is at a crossroads. Historically, tech has thought of itself as a solutions industry, except that its solutions are now our problems. […] It is clear that we no longer hear dissenting voices. There have always been debates in the Valley, but the tech supremacist fringe, to which Trump supporters like Peter Thiel and David Sacks belong, was a minority, drowned in the mass. […] Steve Jobs and software entrepreneurs have been made stars and the history of Silicon Valley has been reduced to the success of a hippie counterculture, when it is above all a story of transistors, microprocessors, and engineers with perfectly standardized lives.”

Indeed, the region was a republic of engineers, with back-and-forths between fierce competition in a global world and deregulation and occasional isolationism allowing monopolies. In the 1980s, the threat was Japan, and the semiconductor industry had appealed to the Federal State for its survival (after having benefited from the flow of public money at the height of the Cold War in the 1960s.) I recently spoke of my difficulty in finding dissenting voices too.

“In 2022, the situation changed and Big Tech started laying off employees. Since then, they’ve been cutting 5% of their payroll every year.”

On this point, I slightly disagree with the observation. In 2009 and 2013, for example, Google also reduced its workforce by 5%. I had heard that Cisco was shedding 5% of its “lowest-performing” workforce each year. The region was so dynamic that it was rarely discussed. Working conditions have always been “harsh and demanding.” A world of engineers, no doubt. It brought us computers and smartphones, the internet, and therefore opportunities to behave differently. It also contributed to creating immense biases because, without a doubt, the use of science and technology is never completely neutral.

“The question being asked of the world is the link between new technologies, innovation, and progress, which are three very different notions. Historically, innovations that have had a lasting impact are few: watches, eyeglasses, jeans… However, today, Silicon Valley mostly creates very ephemeral innovations.”

Tom Kleiner went further, mentioning the printing press, the steam engine, electricity, and finally the transistor as innovations that changed civilization. This is undoubtedly close to reality.

And Olivier Alexandre adds a beautiful question: “The products offered are essentially based on the promise of saving us time. But what do we lose when we save time?”

And he concludes (provisionally): “Dubai is one of the rare places that has managed to make the future sexy, an optimistic vision of the future: rain without clouds, islands without land, snow without mountains. But above all, technological progress without democracy. All this in a vulnerable area where the questions of resources, food, and housing have always arisen. In a way, Europe embodies the opposite: democracy, sometimes at the cost of technological progress.”

This isn’t the first time that the future of Silicon Valley has looked bleak. For example, you can find AnnaLee Saxenian’s predictions in a post titled Is Silicon Valley crazy (again)?: “In 1979, I was a graduate student at Berkeley and I was one of the first scholars to study Silicon Valley. I culminated my master’s program by writing a thesis in which I confidently predicted that Silicon Valley would stop growing. I argued that housing and labor were too expensive and the roads were too congested, and while corporate headquarters and research might remain, I was convinced that the region had reached its physical limits and that innovation and job growth would occur elsewhere during the 1980s. As it turns out I was wrong.”

There’s no doubt the region is at a new crossroads! But I’m not finished yet, see below.

I promised above to talk about a scientific article dating from 2020. I found its conclusion interesting even if overall the content well-known. So I copy paste :

Silicon Valley—a Metaphor in search of a Structure?

Silicon Valley is a metaphor for a region that lacks a viable governmental structure. It is at the stage of New York, before its 1989 consolidation into a unified city. With the notable exception of the ecology of the Bay, a downside has emerged, a public-private imbalance revealing gaps in housing and transportation Spread across multitudinous counties, towns and cities, Silicon Valley lacks sufficient governance capabilities to address the negative consequences of its overweening success.
An additional imbalance in academic capacities is, in part, a consequence of a more than half century old master plan strictly segmenting the public academic sphere that has limited individual institutional advancement. This gap has been partly redressed by establishment of branch campuses by universities in other parts of the country, like Carnegie Mellon and the Wharton School that ironically treat the region as an under-developed area, at least in its academic capabilities. Moreover, state government funding for public universities
has declined drastically, from providing 40% of Berkeley’s budget in the 1980’s to 14% percent at present. This gap is being redressed by a massive fund-raising campaign that expects to raise 6 billion dollars and increase the universities tenure track positions in coming years.
Re-balancing the Triple Helix will also require increased interaction among the spheres, a phenomenon that has declined in recent decades, placing the long-term innovation and carrying-capacity of the region at risk. The innovative and sustainable economic development of Silicon Valley not only depends on the presence of strong universities, but on how they interact and overlap roles with the other agents of the Triple Helix model, looking for mutually strategic objectives and identifying cross-cutting issues which none of them can adequately deal individually. Interactions between university, industry and government in a highly dynamic and volatile environment, represent a unique opportunity to recover from economic downturn, create new jobs, and promote a prolific, inclusive and economically sustainable development of regions in the long run.

Invisible Genius(es), Lost Einstein(s), Marie Curie(s) living in Morbihan

Xavier Jaravel comes back in a column entitled “Let’s Not Forget the Lost Marie Curie(s)” for the newspaper Les Echos to one of his favorite topics: “Access to innovation depends heavily on social background, parental income, gender, and department of birth. With equal abilities, children from modest backgrounds have a much lower chance of becoming researchers, entrepreneurs, or inventors than those from privileged families.”

I say “one of his favorite topics” because I loved the short and magnificent essay he published in 2023: Marie Curie Lives in Morbihan – Democratizing Innovation.

For the (very) curious, you can delve deeper into the subject by reading two scientific articles:
Social Push and the Direction of Innovation by the same author and by Elias Einiö and Josh Feng, March 2025.
Invisible Geniuses: Could the Knowledge Frontier Advance Faster? by Ruchir Agarwal and Patrick Gaule, IMF Working Paper 18268, December 2018.

I was fortunate to be invited by the same IMF in January 2019 to analyze the sources of innovation. There, I discovered the similar concept of the Lost Einstein. A paper also co-authored by Xavier Jaravel and entitled Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation provides a definition: There are many “lost Einsteins” – individuals who would have had highly impactful inventions had they been exposed to innovation in childhood – especially among women, minorities, and children from low-income families.

When I read analyses of the reasons for innovation failures, particularly in Europe, I see “rational and economic” explanations, such as overly strict regulations, uneven markets, inappropriate taxation, and inadequate investments. I hear fewer cultural or sociological reasons, which seem far more convincing to me. Xavier Jaravel helps highlight important and little-known elements. Thanks to him!

Who in tech still has the courage to publicly oppose Trump in Silicon Valley?

In recent weeks or months, I have been discovering with amazement or embarrassment that many people in Silicon Valley have apparently turned their backs to support Trump’s policies in the United States. It’s quite impressive, even if it’s not as impressive as we think. I already addressed the topic in July 2024, at a time when I believed Kamala Harris would be elected president. It was titled Politics and Silicon Valley. And I indeed discovered that former Democrat “sympathizers” were turning to Republicans such as Mark Zuckerberg, Sam Altman, or Marc Andreessen. Worse, it seems that even Sundar Pichai (CEO of Google) or Tim Cook (CEO of Apple) were going in the same direction. After all, in Europe, we are never shocked that a boss is right-wing and the least favored are left-wing. Again, you can reread my post on the subject. In reality, Silicon Valley is so Democrat in its voting that it was perhaps difficult to position oneself otherwise, and today, people position themselves more openly. Votes are also evolving as illustrated here.

So I asked myself the question: who is opposing Trump today in tech and Silicon Valley?

I was pleasantly surprised to find that there were figures like Bill Gates and Michael Moritz:

Bill Gates is a moderate and not active politically. But I quote him from Bill Gates says he’s surprised about his fellow billionaires’ rightward political shift: ‘I always thought of Silicon Valley as being left of center’ : “The fact that now there is a significant right-of-center group is a surprise to me.” while “incredible things happened because of sharing information on the internet,” social media has had major downfalls. “You see ills that I have to say I did not predict,” While Gates is by no means an open Trump supporter, he said he’d do his best to work with the president. “I will engage this administration just like I did the first Trump administration as best I can,” Gates told the NYT.

Michael Moritz is less well known, but given that he funded Google, Yahoo!, PayPal, Apple, Cisco, and YouTube, we can appreciate what he has to say in Trump’s tech backers are ‘making a big mistake,’ Trump’s tech financiers and supporters were “making the same mistake as all powerful people who back authoritarians.” He wrote that wealthy financiers believe “they will be able to control Trump,” or else are committing “another cardinal error: deluding themselves that he will not do what he says or promises.” “That has not been the modus operandi of authoritarians over the centuries,”

Paul Graham, whom I respect, wrote an article on wokeness that deserves careful reading, but it’s not really an opposition to Trump; rather, it seeks to explain a movement. Please read The Origins of Wokeness. For example I’m not going to claim Trump’s second victory in 2024 was a referendum on wokeness; I think he won, as presidential candidates always do, because he was more charismatic; but voters’ disgust with wokeness must have helped. And “Trump and wokeness are cousins”.

Steve Blank is rather silent but I discovered that in 2020, that he resigned from a Department of Defense advisory board, protesting the Trump administration’s decision to oust most of his fellow board members and replace some of them with political loyalists with no defense or business experience. See here.

Who else? I’ve searched a bit in vain. My “heroes” are rather silent, but they always have been, so what can I conclude? Hopefully, some will wake up and dare to oppose them, whatever the cost…

PS: I found a little more, for example, Larry Page: “I intend to tell the president that we are with him and that we will help him in any way we can. If you can reform the tax code, reduce regulations and negotiate better trade agreements, the US technology industry will be stronger and more competitive than ever3, he would be quoted as saying by Andoidsis.

Roger McNamme is another investor: Well, everything about Trump seems like a payback, right? All these executives are giving a million dollars each. These are rounding spreads. This is money they find between the cushions of their living room couch. But, you know, this is essentially a precautionary payment. And in Musk’s case, the investment he made in Trump, which was a quarter of a billion dollars, or the investment he made in Twitter, which was about $44 billion, has paid off, obviously, many, many times over. I think Trump and Musk will eventually part ways. I don’t know Trump at all, but he doesn’t seem like the kind of guy who would support someone who competes on the same level as Musk. But we’ll see how it goes. See here.

And of course, yes, there is Reid Hoffman, the founder of Linkedin, “one of the tech bosses most fiercely opposed to Donald Trump and Elon Musk“. See here or there or again .

PS2: April 15, 2025. On the day Harvard University rejects Donald Trump’s requests, I just read a few marvelous pages from the Magic Mountain by Thomas Mann. Here they are:

There came a day when Herr Settembrini directly confronted his pupil, and so betrayed his own pedagogic uneasiness. “But in God’s name, my good engineer, he is just a stupid old man. What do you see in him? Can he do anything for you? It is beyond all reason. It would be clear enough — though not necessarily praiseworthy—if you were simply taking him into the bargain, if in seeking out his company you were seeking out that of his current sweetheart. But it is impossible not to notice that you pay almost more attention to him than to her. I implore you, help me understand this.”
Hans Castorp laughed. “By all means,” he said. “Agreed! The fact is, as we know—permit me to say—fine!” And he tried to ape Peeperkorn’s cultured gestures as well. “Yes, yes,” he said, and laughed again. “You find that stupid, Herr Settembrini, and certainly it is vague, which in your eyes is worse than stupid. Ah, stupidity. There are so many different kinds of stupidity, and cleverness is one of the worst. Hello! Why, I think I’ve just coined a phrase, a bon mot. How do you like it?”
“Very much. I cannot wait for your first collection of aphorisms. Perhaps there is still time, however, to ask you to take into account certain observations we have occasionally made concerning the misanthropic nature of paradoxes.”
“It shall be done, Herr Settembrini. Absolutely—shall be done. No, in this bon mot of mine, you do not see me in hot pursuit of paradoxes. I was merely trying to point out the great difficulty one has in defining ‘stupidity’ and ‘cleverness.’ It is so hard to keep them separate, they are so intertwined. I know very well how you hate any sort of mystical guazzabuglio and are a man who believes in values and judgments—value judgments—and I quite agree with you. But the issue of ‘stupidity’ and ‘cleverness’ is at times a complete mystery, and it must be permissible to concern oneself with mysteries, always presuming it is an honest attempt to get to the bottom of them, if possible. Let me ask you this question: Can you deny that he has us all in his pocket? I’m putting it crudely, and yet, as nearly as I can tell, you cannot deny it. He puts us in his pocket, and somehow or other he has the right to make fun of us all. But why? And how? And where does it come from? It is certainly not a matter of his cleverness. One can hardly speak of cleverness in this case, I admit. He is much more a man of fuzziness and feelings, feelings are his cup of tea, so to speak—if you’ll forgive me the colloquial phrase. What I am saying is this: it is not by way of cleverness that he puts us in his pocket, not through intellectual prowess. You wouldn’t stand for that. And it really is out of the question. But surely it is not physical prowess, either! It cannot be because of his broad captain’s shoulders, or any raw brute force, or because he could lay any one of us flat with his fist—it would never occur to him that he could, and if it did, why, a few civilized words would calm him down. And so it’s not physical, either. And yet the physical dimension does play a role, without a doubt—not in the sense of brute strength, but in another, more mystical sense—the moment anything physical plays a role, things always get mystical. And the physical merges into the intellectual, and vice versa, and cannot be differentiated, and stupidity and cleverness cannot be differentiated. But the effect is there, the dynamic effect, and we find ourselves stuck in his pocket. And for that we have only one word at hand, and that word is ‘personality.’ We use the word in another, perfectly reasonable sense, too: we are all personalities—moral and legal and all those other sorts of personalities. But that is not what I mean. I’m talking about a mystery that extends beyond stupidity and cleverness, and that is what we need to concern ourselves with—partly to get to the bottom of it, if possible, and partly, to the extent that it is not possible, to edify ourselves. And if you are for values, then, in the end, personality is a positive value, too, I should think—a more positive value than stupidity or cleverness, positive in the highest degree, absolutely positive, like life itself—in short, a value for life and in that sense suitable for our earnest consideration. And that’s how I thought I should respond to what you said about stupidity.”
Herr Settembrini let silence reign. Then he said, “You deny that you are in hot pursuit of paradoxes. By now you should know that I have an equal dislike of seeing you in hot pursuit of mysteries. By turning personality into an enigma, you run the danger of idol-worship. You are venerating a mask. You see something mystical where there is only mystification, one of those hollow counterfeits with which the demon of corporeal physiognomy enjoys taunting us on occasion. You have never spent any time in theatrical circles, have you? So you do not know those thespian faces that can embody the features of a Julius Caesar, a Goethe, and a Beethoven all in one, but whose owners, the moment they open their mouths, prove to be the most miserable ninnies under the sun.”
“Fine, a freak of nature,” Hans Castorp said. “And yet not just a freak, not just something to taunt us. For people to be actors, they must have talent, and talent is something that goes beyond stupidity and cleverness, it is itself a value for life. Mynheer Peeperkorn has talent, too, no matter what you may say, and he uses it to put us in his pocket. Set Herr Naphta in the corner of a room and have him deliver a lecture on Gregory the Great and the City of God, something well worth listening to — and in the other corner have Peeperkorn stand there with his strange mouth and a brow raised in great creases and say nothing except, ‘By all means! Permit me to say—settled!’ And you will see people gather around Peeperkorn, down to the last man, and Naphta will be left sitting there alone with his cleverness and his City of God, although he can express himself so clearly that it makes your blood and spit run cold, to use one of Behrens’s phrases.”
“You should be ashamed of yourself, worshiping success like that,” Herr Settembrini chided him. “Mundus vult decipi. I do not demand that people flock around Herr Naphta. He is a dreadful obstructionist. But I would be inclined to stand at his side in the imaginary scene you have just painted with such reprehensible relish. Go ahead and despise distinctions, precision, logic, the coherence of the human word. Go ahead and despise it in favor of some sort of hocus-pocus of insinuation and emotional charlatanry—and the Devil will definitely have you in his—”

Two great recent startup stories (not in Silicon Valley, but both acquired by Google) – part 2 : wiz.io

Reading a few articles about Deepmind (part 1 of this post) and the founders of Adallom and wiz.io, I remembered other stories of European startups or those founded by Europeans. I’m thinking of Spotify (see my posts in 2022 and 2018) or VMWare (see an older post from 2010). We see that more or less curbed ambition has led to different results. Wiz or Spotify have valuations in the tens of billions, Deepmind, Adallom and VMWare (first acquisition) in the hundreds of millions, while the second acquisition of VMWare was also in the tens of billions. I don’t know if there’s a pattern or if I’m creating it artificially, but it’s a bit as if an acquisition in the hundreds of millions was a semi-failure linked to the fear of too much competition or the impossibility of pursuing an independent adventure.

The double adventure of the founders of Adallom and Wiz.io goes a little in that direction. I read a few articles which reference you will find at the end of the article. And I will give the lessons learned by Assaf Rappaport from these two stories. A first success, Adallom bought in 2014 by Microsoft for $320M then a second, wiz.com which Google offered to buy a few days ago for $32B (i.e. 100 times more…) Unlike Deepmind, I did not have access to specific documents, so I had to make some assumptions like some others (see [2]) and cross-check the information available online. Here are the two capitalization tables. But here too, the advice given (which I repeat below) is just as important as this data.

First of all, what I take from the tables:
– Four founders whose story is a classic in Israel (see [1]) created Adallom and then wiz.io. In reality, I am not a big fan of the concept of serial entrepreneurs, but wonder if wiz.io is not rather the scaling up of Adallom like VMWare (2nd period) was for VMware (1st period) or by pushing very hard the Nobel Prize of Demis Hassabis the scaling up of Deepmind! We read in the press that the founders had earned around $25M with Adallom according to some sources and $3B with wiz.io, also a factor of about 100x.
– The same venture capital funds and partners are the investors – Gili Raanan for Sequoia then Cyberstarts and Shardul Shah for Index. These are rare enough to be mentioned especially since these funds intervened at the seed stage.
– For Adallom, multiples of 24x for Series A, 7x for Series B, and approximately 2x for Series C.
– For wiz.io, multiples of 475x for Seed, 73x for Series A, 20x for Series B, 5x, 3x, and 2.7x for Series C, D, and E.

All of this is arguable, but not uninteresting, and there’s a bit of a lottery aspect to it. Don’t get me wrong. Success is rare, never guaranteed. I remember a startup that was offered a $300 million acquisition. The founders and/or investors declined, thinking they were worth more. In the end, the acquisition price was $10 million.

About the ambition and uncertainty, it is also worth reading Shardul Shah (Index) on LinkedIn (Index Ventures just cemented its place as one of the all-time VC greats). Here are some quotes : “I don’t know why we’re talking about averages — none of us are in the business of mean reversion.” […] “I’m not seeking average returns. I’m not seeking good deals—I’m looking for outliers.” […] “I don’t seek comfort. You have to be comfortable with being uncomfortable. We’re in the business of taking risk. I’m not a value investor, right? I believe in the power law.” […] “The hardest thing is identifying if you’re delusional or if you have conviction. Sometimes it can feel like a thin line.”

Finally I extract the lessons from Assaf Rappaport:
1. The team is more important than the idea. A startup is built not around an idea, which is going to change anyway, but around a team. The really good VC funds invest in talent, and not in products, ideas or business plans. And also: Don’t drag your feet when it comes to meeting with the best funds. Don’t leave them till the end.
2. One who listens to problems will find ideas. When you meet with customers, you’re not coming to convince them; rather, you’re there to learn from them. If you’re the one who spoke for more than a quarter of the meeting, it wasn’t a good conversation. Customers have problems that you didn’t even know existed, and the way to discover them is with question marks, not exclamation marks.
And also: You need some luck.
3. ‘No’ is the correct answer to determine whether the investor is serious. No matter what kind of offer you get – investment or acquisition – there’s only one response: ‘I really appreciate your offer, but no thanks.’ This kind of answer never deterred a determined investor or company – and if they’re not determined, they won’t invest in any case. And also: You need to prepare a media plan, both internal and external; when things leak, you’ll have only enough time to hit the Send button.
4. The exit is just the beginning of the hard work. On the day after being merged into a giant corporation, don’t sit back and wait until the options mature. Instead, adopt the commando approach: We’re part of a big army, but we belong to an elite unit.
5. Don’t be afraid of activism. In every company, a moment comes when you have to give the conservative corporate people a kick, and then go ahead and act. To be the best workplace and to recruit the best workers, you need to be brave and take a stand, engaging in social activism that gives rise to tremendous team spirit.
6. Take a deep breath and don’t exhale too soon. You shouldn’t be blinded by big money, instead, use it to quickly acquire paying customers, turn down acquisition offers of hundreds of millions of dollars, and grow the company rapidly so it will become a unicorn.
7. Today, it’s possible to overtake everyone with a computer and Zoom

Once again, risk-taking and limitless ambition.

References :
[1] : 7 lessons from reaching a $1.7 billion valuation in just one year https://www.calcalistech.com/ctech/articles/0,7340,L-3904610,00.html
[2] : WIZ, Esprit, es-tu là? Comment les fondateurs de Wiz refont des miracles après le succès d’Adallom https://trivialfinance.substack.com/p/wiz-esprit-es-tu-la

Two great recent startup stories (not in Silicon Valley, but both acquired by Google) – part 1 : DeepMind

I probably have to admit a bias in favor of startups led by tech founders. It is what I have been advocating for decades now. So when I read about stories going that way, I am more than happy. Recently I was mentioned by friends a documentary movie entitled The Thinking Game.

I do not know why I had not looked at DeepMind before all the more it is pretty easy to get information about British companies and this is a British startup. So you read me, I built its cap. table when it was acquired by Google in 2014 for about

What I read in the table:
– 3 or 4 main cofounders, but Demis Hassibis had the biigest initial stake (80%),
– investors took high risk as the company did not have that much but talent initially, (and no revenue until acquisition ?)
– the main or at least most famous investors were Peter Thiel and Elon Musk,
– the company did not raise that much money : 2M£ in Feb. 2011, £15M in Dec. 2011 / Feb. 2012, finally £25M in 2013 before the £400M acquisition by Google in Jan. 2014.

That’s it for the basic facts. More importantly, the lessons in the article my friends sent to me are:
– First, DeepMind combines crystal-clear strategic clarity with never-ending tactical flexibility. What comes across in the film is the company’s extraordinary willingness to experiment wildly and fail persistently.
– Second, DeepMind’s mission has helped it recruit some remarkable scientific talent, critical to its success. In a discussion after the movie, Hassabis explained that he had always resisted investor pressure to move to Silicon Valley and had been determined to remain in London. “The UK has always been very strong in science and innovation and has a rich history in computing,” he said. “We are trying to carry on in that tradition.” Hassabis reckoned that there was a lot of under-utilised academic talent in Europe, and elsewhere, that could be attracted to London. So it has proved.
– Third, what was essential for DeepMind’s success was its ability to scale rapidly. Back in 2010, few VCs were prepared to go anywhere near a startup with such extravagant ambitions and no business plan. Much of its initial capital came from US investors, including Peter Thiel and Elon Musk. The company also felt compelled to sell out to Google in 2014 to give it the capital, data and computing firepower necessary to stay at the leading-edge of AI. (The extra resources were essential for recruiting and retaining top talent, too).

Often not to say always the same lessons about risk taking and ambition…

PS: I have not watched the movie yet, so I may amend this post in the near future.

50 years of Technology Transfer at Stanford University

Back to my favorite topic, that is Silicon Valley, after a few digressions. I just rediscovered a 2022 paper entitled Systematic analysis of 50 years of Stanford University technology transfer and commercialization. The full paper is available here. As a side comment, this has been motivated by recent articles about Technology Transfer in France and more specifically the study entitled “Étude sur la performance des SATT vis-à-vis d’une sélection d’OTT” (Study on the performance of SATTs vs. a selection of TTOs). Unfortunately, the study does not seem to be public and I could only read comments about it.

I have published a lot about Stanford University. The search engine gives the following here. So I will not go into much detail but just extract what I found interesting not to say surprising. Here it is:

this is about money, but not only about money.

“The total net income of the inventions for all years considered is $581M, and the average net income is $0.13 M. Overall, most inventions have a negative net income, and only 20% of inventions in this dataset have produced positive net income.” Further in the paper “The invention licensing via OTLs represents only one facet of the transfer of technology from university to industry, though it is an important facet. [And] we primarily focus on net income as the outcome metric because it is straightforward to quantify and is a key metric of OTL’s own assessment. However, it is important to note that licensing income does not completely capture impact, and pursuing licensing income is not the ultimate goal of the Stanford OTL.”


Overview of the Stanford inventions data : Number of inventions by year that Stanford’s Office of Technology Licensing marketed. The color of the stacked bar chart indicates whether the cumulative net income (until June 31, 2021) is positive.

the most profitable inventions are predominantly licensed by inventors’ own startups.

“Around 20% of the inventions were licensed by the inventor’s own startups, which we refer to as “self-licensing.” Overall, the self-licensing rate increases over time. The interesting peak of the self-licensing rate in 1995–1999 might be related to the dot-com bubble. We also found that inventions with high net income are predominantly self-licensing inventions. For example, all inventions that have generated more than $10 M net income are self-licensed, and the self-licensing rate for the inventions with $1–$10 M net income is 59%. In contrast, the self-licensing rate for inventions with less than $10 K net income is 16%. This finding is consistent with previous research showing that startups with direct connections to the university tend to be more successful than otherwise similar startups.” There is a more general side comment here : “Shane et al. found that new ventures with founders having direct and indirect relationships with venture investors are most likely to receive venture funding.”


Self-licensing (inventions licensed by the inventor’s own startups)
(A) The fraction of inventions licensed by inventor startups over time.
(B) The fraction of inventions in each net income group that the inventors license. The sample sizes for each net income category are: <$10 K: 3,776 inventions; $10–$100 K: 465 inventions; $100 K–$1 M: 212 inventions; $1–$10 M: 56 inventions; ≥$10 M: 5 inventions.

inventions have involved larger teams over time. There is also an interesting side comment : “Smaller teams have tended to disrupt science and technology with new ideas and opportunities, whereas larger teams have tended to develop existing ones.”

“In addition, we found that the inventions from teams of only first-time inventors have a higher net income than other inventions. This highlights the importance of being open to first-time inventors.” This is correlated with my analysis of serial entrepreneurs, I had found they have a tendency to do worse over time.. See Serial entrepreneurs: are they better?

I will briefly conclude that this is a very interesting new study of Stanford’s contribution to innovation, which confirms well-known things and adds much less known ones. A must-read for experts and “food for thought” for the others!